Tracking the Tropics

Aug 14, 2013 9:15 AM by Dave Baker

Tropics More Active

A tropical wave over the central Caribbean looks more organized this morning and the National Hurricane Center thinks it has a 50% chance for development over the next two days.  This tropical wave has been drifting westward across the Caribbean over the past few days and upper level conditions haven't been very favorable for development.  A ridge of high pressure aloft over the western Caribbean, the Yucatan, and the Bay of Campeche should bring less shear giving the system a potential boost.   Most computer models drift it across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche/southern Gulf of Mexico in the next few days.  

Another tropical wave off the African coast is also looking more orgainzed today.  This wave now has a 60% chance for development.  The second half of August and the early part of September is when many of these "Cape Verde" type systems develop.  The peak of the hurricane season is around September 10th, so seeing additional activity over the next few weeks is normal.

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