Aug 17, 2013 6:21 PM by Daniel Phillips

Tropical Forecast Becomes More Clear

The forecast for the system that has been churning in the Gulf of Mexico is finally starting to become more clear. After a week of models flip flopping back and forth from one run to the next, some consistency is starting to reveal itself. Models now are hesitant to even make it a tropical storm, and push the whole system to the west. 

After falling apart while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula the system never had the right conditions to get better organized, and has floundered around ever since. Spinning multiple different lows at different levels of the atmosphere there was never a real consensus center of circulation. Instead the system became elongated forcing deep tropical moisture across the gulf, and has resulted in heavy rains for our neighbors to the east. 

The biggest x-factor in the development of the storm was a trough that has been digging in this week, which has been much deeper and lingered longer then expected. Had that trough lifted out this weekend there would of been a good chance it pulled the system along with it, however, that was not the case. 

The cold front that moved through earlier this week brought in a lot of dry air which has acted as a buffer and contributed to the stretching out of the storm. It is also the reason why we have remained relatively dry, while other parts of the Gulf Coast have gotten drenched. 

The storm will now move toward the Texas/Mexico border, and may drag enough moisture along with it to spark some showers on Monday. All in all it has been a very frustrating system to pin down and forecast, but it does serve as a good reminder how quickly everything in the Gulf can change. Lucky for us this system changed in our favor. 


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