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Aug 28, 2014 6:55 PM by Rob Perillo

Tropical Assessment for the Next Week

An area of low pressure near Brownsville Thursday afternoon was exhibiting lower pressures (near 1008mb) but was running out of ocean real estate for potential development.

The low remains disorganized and is expected to stay that way as it moves inland by Friday morning.

Models do keep a broad area of low pressure ("troughiness") along the Texas Coast into this weekend while another tropical wave that was located by the Yucatan is expected to add to the high moisture content in the Gulf of Mexico.

This deep tropical moisture is expected to get drawn northward toward the Texas and Louisiana Coasts through Saturday with the potential of heavy rainfall and flooding rains likely to develop along the Upper Texas Coast by late Friday into Saturday...and perhaps for portions of Coastal Louisiana and Acadiana by Saturday morning.

Rain totals could be in the 3-5" range or more across the Texas Coast through Saturday with isolated amounts potentially double those numbers if "training" of storms occurs.

In Acadiana, expect 1-3" of rain with highest amounts further south and west. Rain potential could exceed 5" especially across the coastal parishes of Acadiana through Saturday afternoon. 

Rain totals and chances could be markedly lower toward Central & Northern Louisiana.

This surge of moisture will gradually decrease Sunday into next week, but the chance of scattered afternoon showers and a few storms will stay...in other words typical late summer weather.

Looking ahead in the tropicals through the first week of September, a tropical wave located in the Eastern Caribbean Thursday will likely head for the Southern Gulf of Mexico by Monday. This wave has a 20% chance of development per the National Hurricane Center, with development most favorable when the wave reaches the Yucatan and Bay of Campeche.

There should be enough high pressure ridging across the Gulf Coast States next week to keep any potential system in the Southern Gulf and slowly moving on into Mexico by the end of next week.

A couple of tropical waves coming off the African coast over the next week have some limited potential for development down the road, but they are next expected to impact the Gulf of Mexico.

The long range pattern for the following week per the Global Tropical Hazards Assessment based on westward propagating upper atmospheric waves (also know as the Madden-Julian Oscillation) favor the open Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific as the tropical hot spots for development.

As always this time of year, there can be a tropical surprise that could develop between now on the 2nd week of September, especially beyond the 8-9 period, which will get us into the prime of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Anytime, you can get to the second week of September without a major tropical system in the Gulf almost half the battle is won...unfortunately, the prime-time tropical season for Acadiana/Louisiana continues through the first week of October.

System in the Southwestern Gulf Thursday:


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