Sep 18, 2013 9:32 AM by Dave Baker
The next area of tropical development appears to be near the Yucatan once again. An area of low pressure developing over the Yucatan Peninsula will drift westward into the Bay of Campeche tonight and tomorrow and may become a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Jerry. The National Hurricane Center says the system has an 80% chance for development over the next two days. The Hurricane Hunter Reconnaissance Aircraft will travel there today to investigate.
Model data clusters over the Bay of Campeche with a westward drift through Friday possibly grazing the coast of Mexico early this weekend. At the same time a trough will dip southward over the Continental United States sending a cool front southward toward the Gulf coast. Right now it appears that front will clear Acadiana Saturday night and stall just offshore.
With that front in place, the models show the tropical system stalling over the western Gulf through Sunday, then possibly pulling east or northeast into the central Gulf of Mexico. Extended forecasts push the system toward the eastern Gulf coast near Florida and then possibly into the southeast United States. At this point the forecast keeps the front in place blocking it from coming toward Louisiana, but if the front dissolves and the system lingers in the central Gulf the forecast could change.