Aug 27, 2014 4:31 PM by Rob Perillo

No Tropical Organization in Gulf But Moisture Will Persist

NOAA Hurricane Hunters did not find a well-defined, closed circulation in the Western Gulf associated with a 1011mb low pressure center east of the lower Texas Coast Wednesday afternoon.

Deep convection was not located near the center of the low, and unless storms blow-up near the center, the disturbance will have a very slim chance of further development.

This system has a low (20% per the National Hurricane Center) chance of developing over the next couple of days as its proximity to land will inhibit development while drifting westward toward Texas through Friday.

Deep tropical moisture will likely stay pooled in the Gulf into the weekend keeping plenty of clouds and above normal rain chances from Texas to Louisiana perhaps lasting into early next week. 

While the bulk of the deep tropical moisture persists in the Gulf over the next couple of days, it appears that rain chances will stay in the forecast locally through Friday, but could increase substantially for Saturday.

The pattern into next week keeps a steady pattern of Caribbean tropical waves entering the Gulf with a nearly monsoonal flow across the Western Gulf into Texas & Mexico and perhaps Louisiana through early next week.

On the plus side, thanks to the moisture and cloud cover, high temperatures should be closer to the upper 80s to lower 90s over the next several days, and perhaps closer to the mid-80s this weekend.

Tropical Model Plots of Disturbance 98L

Selected atmospheric moisture profiles for Friday and Saturday (Euro Model):


Top Videos

1 2 3 4

Most Popular