Weather

Aug 27, 2013 6:32 PM by Rob Perillo/Jason Allen

No hurricanes through September 1st? Can still be a busy season

While the 2013 Hurricane Season has been an unusually quiet with no hurricanes and six tropical storms, some of which were rather marginal and short-lived, it can still can get quite busy in the weeks that follow.

Long range models heading into September continue to suggest decreasing storm-inhibiting African dust with more robust candidates for development in the first couple weeks of the month...which would coincide with traditionally the busiest part of the season.

KATC researcher and executive producer, Jason Allen tells us that going back through 1960 there have only been 4 years where the first hurricane of the season formed after September 1st: 1984, 1988, 2001 and 2002.

Each of those years 3 or more hurricanes formed after September 1st. Most notable were in 1988 when Category 5 Gilbert slammed into the Yucatan Peninsula and eventually the Mexican mainland, and in 2002 when Category 4 Hurricane Lili struck Acadiana as a strong Category 1 on October 3rd.

In 2001, the first hurricane didn't form until September 9th with a total of 8 hurricanes developing after the September 1st of that year.

Normally hurricane season "prime-time" for Acadiana is from late August through the first week of October, but late season hurricanes such as Juan (1985) and most recently Sandy (2012) remind us that hurricanes can wreak havoc in the U.S. through the first days of November.

Below is a satellite picture of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988 with 185mph maximum sustained winds.

Research details...courtesy: Jason Allen

1988

FIRST HURRICANE FORMED SEPT. 2 (DEPRESSION DEVELOPED ON AUG. 31)
HURRICANE DEBBY CAT 1
8 STORMS FOLLOWED (4 WERE HURRICANES)
INCLUDING: GILBERT (CAT 5), HELENE (CAT 4), JOAN (CAT 4)

2001

FIRST HURRICANE FORMED SEPT. 9 (DEPRESSION DEVELOPED ON SEPT. 1)
HURRICANE ERIN CAT 3
10 STORMS FOLLOWED (8 WERE HURRICANES)
INCLUDING: FELIX (CAT 3), IRIS (CAT 4), MICHELLE (CAT 4)
NOTE: SAME NAME LIST AS CURRENT SEASON

2002

FIRST HURRICANE FORMED SEPT. 12
HURRICANE GUSTAV CAT 2
5 STORMS FOLLOWED (3 WERE HURRICANES)
INCLUDING: ISIDORE (CAT 3) AND LILI (CAT 4)

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