Jul 31, 2014 5:53 PM by Rob Perillo
Hurricane Hunters flying into a tropical disturbance 500 miles east of the Windward Islands found gale force winds of 40-45mph near the center of low pressure late Thursday.
The Hunters did not find a closed surface circulation with the disturbance nor were showers/storms encircling the system Thursday afternoon. This, the disturbance was not upgraded to a depression or storm, but that may happen quickly over the next few days.
Pressures with the low pressure system had dropped 4mb since Wednesday, with latest Hurricane Hunter estimate at 1007mb...strong enough for a depression or weak tropical storm.
If convection (showers & storms) begin to encircle the system more consistently this disturbance could easily be upgraded to depression or more likely storm status as it moves quickly to the west-northwest at 20mph.
The disturbance will advance to the Windward Islands by late Friday and then the North Central Caribbean Saturday into Sunday.
Tropical models bring the system to the Bahamas Monday before likely taking a turn northward early next week in response to the upper trough that will be dominating the weather pattern across the Gulf Coast states.
Whether this system develops or not, it should not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.
The next named system will be "Bertha".
8 hours ago