Posted: Jun 12, 2013 5:20 PM by Rob Perillo
Updated: Jun 12, 2013 5:39 PM
High pressure will continue to build across Acadiana into the weekend with its subsidence (or sinking air) compressing the atmosphere, thereby allowing for hotter temperatures.
Surface winds will turn westerly Thursday cutting off most of the cooling effects from the Gulf, with winds turning northwesterly Friday which could push our readings into the upper 90s in some spots.
Temperatures will likely rise into the mid-90s for our Thursday with rain chances staying 10% or less.
A very weak frontal boundary will try to move into the area Friday, which could spark off a few healthy thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening but rain chances at best will be in the 15-30% range.
This weekend should bring more of the same summer doldrum pattern with highs in the mid-90s along with rain chances staying very slight.
By the mid-latter part of next week Acadiana may see a slight increase in tropical moisture possibly allowing for a few more widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
While staying quiet in the tropics over the next week, the very long range pattern could get a little more interesting in the Gulf of Mexico...
While very preliminary, an upper level global stratospheric perturbation is expected to migrate into the NW Caribbean & Southern Gulf during the last week of June which could make for favorable conditions for tropical development.
This, combined with the long range GFS model indicating much the same, is breeding some confidence that there could be tropical storm development with hurricane potential during the last week of the month in the Gulf of Mexico.
Taking into account the expected orientation of the Bermuda Ridge of high pressure in the 10 day time-frame, there will likely be a tropical surge in the vicinity of Acadiana (Texas-Louisiana) before the month is done.