Sep 17, 2013 4:45 PM by Rob Perillo

Gulf Tropical Hot Spot Through Next 10 Days

An area of low pressure over Belize Tuesday is expected to emerge in the Bay of Campeche by late Wednesday with development of this system likely.

Development of a tropical storm is possible later this week as the system once again approaches Eastern Mexico.  

This time, a new weather player in the form of an approaching frontal trough across the Northern Gulf Coast, could draw some of this system's deep tropical moisture and perhaps a portion of the system itself closer to Louisiana.

In Acadiana, our string of hot and dry summer days will come to an end with increasing rain chances and soaking storms becoming likely Friday into Saturday as the trough passes through the area. 

The Gulf system may ultimately stall in the Southern Gulf, with part of this disturbance likely to get drawn north and northeastward with the aforementioned frontal trough toward the northern and/or northeastern portions of the Gulf of Mexico.

It remains unclear whether the portion of the system that gets drawn northward will be organized or not.

Interestingly enough, both the GFS and Euro Long Range Models keep a disturbance (could be entirely a new system or a left-over of the frontal trough) in the Gulf of Mexico through the next 10 days with a potential organized system drifting toward Louisiana by the end of next week.

Climatologically speaking, prime-time for tropical activity in the Gulf continues well into October and with the lack of strong fronts on the horizon the busiest part of this tropical season may occur very close to home through the end of this month.

The next named systems will be "Jerry" followed by "Karen".


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