Aug 12, 2013 3:48 PM by Rob Perillo

Disturbance in Caribbean Garnering Attention

A disorganized tropical wave/disturbance in the West-Central Caribbean south of Hispaniola has been garnering more attention at the insistence of computer models that show development as this system heads for the Yucatan Peninsula later this week. 

The disturbance is in an area of hostile upper level winds Monday, but conditions are expected to become more favorable for some slow tropical development through the mid-latter part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward.

Many of the computer models are indicating that there will be a distinct possiblility of a burgeoning tropical system pushing toward the Southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday with the possibility of some significant strengthening.

A frontal trough advancing southward toward the Gulf States later this week would draw any potential system northward and eventually northeastward, perhaps toward the Eastern Gulf States, but forecast confidence in developing systems like this is usually quite low. 

The Northwest Caribbean is a climatologically favored area for development in mid-August with most systems traveling toward the Gulf of Mexico, so this system will be watched closely over the next several days.

While not a direct threat to Louisiana at this time, there is a distinct possibility that rough conditions, at the very least, could develop in the Southern and Central Gulf of Mexico waters by this weekend.

The next named system for the Atlantic Basin will be "Erin".


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