Sep 2, 2013 5:30 PM by Rob Perillo

Better Chance of Storms, Tropics A Little More Active

A weakening frontal boundary will sag southward and dissipate over Louisiana Tuesday into Wednesday allowing for a better chance of scattered afternoon showers and storms.

The boundary will dissipate later this week but tropical moisture will likely linger into the weekend keeping a slight chance of afternoon storms in the mix through at least Saturday.

Highs will be closer to the mid-90s for the rest of the week while night-time lows stay in the low-mid 70s.

In an otherwise very quiet tropical season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring several disturbances for possible development; a weak disturbance in the Northwest Caribbean will drift toward the Yucatan & Bay of Campeche over the next few days-chance of development in the next 5 days is near 30%.

Another disturbance with a weak elongated area of low pressure was located in the Eastern Caribbean. The NHC is giving this system a 50% chance of development later this week.  Upper level winds are expected to be conducive for development, but drier air at mid-levels has been and may continue to be an inhibiting factor.

Another wave and weak low that has emerged off of the African Coast has a low chance of development (near 20%) over the next 5 days.

Long range models suggest that the system in the Eastern Caribbean has the most potential over the next week, while they also develop a hurricane in the mid-Atlantic mid-next week. The long range models however, have had difficulty with storm inhibiting African dust, and dry upper level sheering lows.  

While African Dust has been less prevalent over the last week, the perturbed upper atmosphere and general dryness in the tropics remain. 


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